Iron Vote in Iran for Ahmadinejad II

Iron Vote in Iran for Ahmadinejad II

Iran has been passing through lot of turmoil after Presidential election results were announced. Incumbent Ahmadinejad was declared winner with huge margin of 11 million votes and the competitors were reduced to insignificant contestants. This followed violence and protests unforeseen in recent times. There was considerable interest in the Presidential elections because it seemed to be opening up and people were expecting liberalization and democratic values to be sustained. The protests even forced the Supreme leader Ayatollah Khamenei to order recount in limited constituencies. Though the Supreme leader has declared Ahmadinejad to be the winner and justified free and fair elections, the people are not buying the arguments advanced in support of Ahmadinejad. The powerful Guardian Council also has upheld the decision and refused to annul the election.

It is accepted by the government agencies that in 50 cities votes cast exceed the number of voters by 3 million which is substantial margin. Opposition claims it to be in about 180 cities. Irrespective of numbers, the credibility gap remains unbridged. The violence has gripped the nation. The government has imposed restrictions on foreign media but nevertheless in this seamless world communications spread like fire. The stance adopted by the government is more of iron hand ready to crush the movement of people than trying to win over the situation. The approach is likely to add fuel to the fire in the days to come.

The global community was expecting Iran to open up and get ready for a dialogue with western world on nuclear disarmament and other issues. With democratic values seem to being trampled, one can expect considerable backlash. Ahmadinejad has warned the US and western countries not to meddle in internal affairs of Iran. This gives a sense of déjà vu. The world has seen recently the elections in Zimbabwe followed by long power struggle. President Robert Mugabe stuck to power unlawfully and forced his opponent Mr. Morgan Tsvangirai to join the government as Prime Minister.

Iran is not comparable to Zimbabwe due to their richer culture, heritage, and dominant position in the Muslim world. Economic might and better ability to take on the world sets it apart from several African and Arab countries. And yet when it resorts to similar approaches to power games, one feels sad. Iran can play much bigger role on international scene and find a berth that it deserves provided it takes the true economic and political leadership of the Muslim world. Iran should move away from the developments of seventies and eighties to look at the global view from fast changing realities of 21st century. The loss of face for the Americans in Iraq was the biggest setback and a lesson on how not to deal with Muslim World. President Obama has, in his Cairo speech, outlined how he would like to work to bring the Muslim world closer to the West. Iran therefore should seize the moment of truth in developing relationship with USA in particular and western world in general. This is time to shed the notions of the past, come forward and work together to reshape the perspectives for the benefit of current and future generations.

If there is a change in confrontationist stand to project a more acceptable evolving leadership to tackle problems of 21st century, Iran may emerge as a country the world would like to listen to. To achieve this, Iranian leadership has to first win over its own internal opponents and be seen to be truly representative of the people of the country. The battles on the streets are reaching out to the world through internet and it seems there is much more to hide than meets the eyes. The intensity of protests may increase if there is repression. The reformists would gain in stature if they are denied their dues. Let the world see the iron grip loosening and let the media report freely the developments of rapprochement and reconciliation. In 21st century, the forces of communication, economics, education and civil liberties are likely to overshadow other considerations. Can we see the change coming?

Vijay M. Deshpande
Corporate Advisor,
Strategic Management Initiative,
Pune

June 24, 2009

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Nuclear Apartheid-Iran & North Korea Challenge The World Order

Nuclear Apartheid- Iran and North Korea Challenge The World Order


North Korea has conducted their nuclear tests for delivery system for nuclear war head in spite of warnings from the west and UNSC. This reflects the failure of 6 year old negotiations by the group of five permanent members of UNSC and Japan & South Korea. The moot point is whether possession of nuclear weapon has helped any superpowers in last 60 years and what should be the response of international community to North Korea who has faced economic sanctions due to geopolitical equations and grand strategic models of cold war era.

Ever since the only nuclear attack on Hiroshima / Nagasaki ending the WW II, the United States of America has not only maintained their technological superiority but has piled up the nuclear weapons. Erstwhile Soviet Union always tried to compete and succeeded in surpassing the US till its collapse as a nation. With cold war now a part of the history, the compulsions of stockpiling nuclear weapons have changed. Since WWII no war has been fought and not a single nuclear bomb being detonated over the ground. Since the stockpile is built with objective of having a deterrent, the bomb would never be used again except by a maniac. The maniac could be president of a nation or a terrorist. How does it matter who presses the button? The damage would be done and forever.

Ineffective Deterrent:

A well planned & coordinated 9/11 attack by a bunch of motivated terrorists targeted Pentagon & WTC and succeeded. This was in spite of all the nuclear war heads, missile defense shield (of whatever present status), and electronics warfare techniques closer to “star wars” era with most modern warfare preparedness one can boast of. In fact Washington was never more vulnerable than it was on 9/11 with no role for missiles with nuclear warheads or bombs. The only significant thing airborne that day was Air Force One with the President aboard for wrong reasons.

In spite of the nuclear deterrent in their arsenal, the mightiest force on the earth, USA, has been ineffective even in smaller countries like Somalia, Vietnam, Cambodia, and Afghanistan. No one bothered for the deterrent as it is foregone conclusion that US will not use the nuclear weapon. So how much of the same does USA need to win a war? Thousands of nuclear warheads have not impressed the terrorists and yet they have created fear psychosis by mere possibility of making a dirty bomb which is enough to rattle the whole world. Then what is the strategic value of thousands of war heads deployed and ready to go?

Strategic Failures:

USA has been engaged in fighting conventional war in one or the other theater some where in the world, almost all the time since WWII. How many wars have been won by USA? Has the stockpile of nuclear weapons helped USA significantly? USA under George W Bush declared war on Iraq on the back of misleading story of Weapons of Mass Destruction only to be made to bite the moral dust as their bluff was called. It was only Iraqi Oil which was for the grabs and USA made the most of it. There was no threat what so ever to USA or world from Iraq. UNSC was most ineffective in preventing the war. In fact it made itself redundant in such a show of force and farce while rest of the world watched passively.

India had nuclear deterrent and yet Pakistan, with its own nuclear arsenal, did not bother about it while making audacious attack on parliament and then on Mumbai. So at best deterrents of both had nullifying effect.

Reduction In Nuclear Arsenal:

Over last 40 years USA and Russia, the superpowers with piles of nuclear warheads have done considerable progress in reducing the levels of numbers of war heads with implementation of SALT I treaty which is expiring this year end. USA and Russian teams are engaged in negotiations for preparation of summit between the presidents of the two countries in early July 2009. Implementation of SALT I treaty saw the stockpiles being reduced substantially from levels of about peak of 30,000 of US in 1965 and about 40,000 of Russia around 1985. These stocks had whittled down to peak of about 10,000 around 2002. President Obama and President Medvedev are likely to agree to reduce the nuclear stockpile to limit them to around 2000 each. Why not decimate these numbers by knocking off one zero? That will be a good progress and acknowledgement to the world that nuclear bombs have not made the world any safer.

Alternate Strategic Security Cover:

So the time has come to seek answer to the basic question: what is the changed strategic need to overcome fear of insecurity for the people of a country? It is not the nuclear bomb or even conventional bomb. It is the share in power, share in development, share in progress and share in prosperity. If a nation can provide inclusive growth to the people to take care of these factors, there is every chance of peace. One can not undermine the importance of having a nuclear deterrent for national security but what is most likely to work is to take disgruntled population along the path of opportunities.

Learning From Experience:

Look back at Vietnam today. It is not, nor was it in the past, any threat to any nation. Today it is on path to peace & prosperity after rebuilding from scratch after war. If Afghanistan is vacated by the superpowers, which have self-created strategic stakes, peace can return and development can start. USA talked about good and bad Taliban indicating readiness for a dialogue. Russians walked out of Afghanistan after bitter war and have not lost anything in retrospect. Yet Americans stepped in and do not know how to exit. They may have lost more resources in last twenty years in “operation Afghanistan” than strategic gains, if any. It is time they evolve an exit plan out of Afghanistan as they are doing for Iraq. US fought war in Iraq. Now it is planning withdrawal sooner than later. Peace will return to Iraq. Experience would tell USA not to do any adventure into North Korea.

Selective Punishment:

USA turned the guns on Iran but with Obama in White House there is a scope for dialogue to abandon path of nuclear confrontation. USA turned blind eye when China helped Pakistan to make nuclear bombs. China, the patron of Pakistan’s nuclear program, has been permanent member of UNSC and has encouraged Pakistan. USA seems to be overlooking freedom granted to A.Q. Khan, the proliferator-in-chief of Pakistan. As the reports come in, USA seems to have allowed Pakistan to acquire and manufacture nuclear weapons without informing congress as per Danielle Brian, executive director, Project on Government Oversight.

Today Pakistan is on the brink of economic and political collapse and yet it is being shored up ignoring the biggest proliferation of nuclear technology in the history. According Pentagon, Pakistan was major supplier of critical parts for nuclear technology to North Korea in their own program which is opposed by all the key players. And yet it has gone Scot free! UNSC’s resolutions and threats of sanctions have had no impact on North Korea. North Korea knows that US can not do anything more than they have suffered in the past. If Pakistan can get away with tags of nuclear proliferation and epicenter of terrorism, then any country can. Pakistan has got billions in aid recently. Similar approach with North Korea is likely to succeed.

Strategic Paradigm Shift:

This simply shows that the age old model of passing of UNSC resolution followed by sanctions has become outdated. There has to be a paradigm shift to manage nuclear field in view of 60 years of experience with nuclear weapons, and future needs of global security for peace, progress and prosperity. The global community should recognize the need to put development agenda as an alternative on table to discourage nuclear ambitions instead of coercion or threats. The Global Meltdown could not have come at more opportune time to teach lesson in geo-political governance. If trillions of dollars can be washed down the drain to bail out fraudulent companies, similar aid packages can be used to spend on development projects and to eliminate the need to develop nuclear weapons to give a false sense of security. New models have to be evolved for sustainable growth and security, learning from global experience of contemporary development in last 65 years since WWII.

Weapons Of Mass Development:

USA and Russia should lead the change with further drastic reduction in nuclear stockpiles to minimum levels of couple of hundred war heads to send strong signal to the global community that economic development and growth is the new mantra for security of the people. Why even hundreds of them, critics would ask? That is necessary till the new global order gets accepted by the world to save mother earth from nuclear disaster. Once “Weapons of Mass Development” replace “Weapons of Mass Destruction”, there won’t be any need to Talibanise a community to fight for their survival, for Palestine or Israel to keep fighting for 60 years in search of their nationhood or Iran to feel the insecurity from Israel to equip with the ultimate nuclear weapon. If this can be achieved in next ten or twenty years, then the remaining hundreds of nuclear warheads can be consigned to the dustbin of history. Is it day dreaming? Hope not- that is if nations learn from experience. Also hope Obama and Medvedev would not lose the steam.


Vijay M.Deshpande
Corporate Advisor,
Strategic Management Initiative,
Pune

June 19, 2009


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Quota For SSC Students In Maharashtra

Quota for SSC Students in Maharashtra


The government of Maharashtra is reported to be considering new system for admissions to junior colleges with 90% quota for SSC students leaving only 10% for ICSE and CBSE students for current academic year. For last ten years or so, we frequently read about introduction of new systems for admission for some or the other courses. These changes are challenged in courts and either a stay is brought in or they are squashed by courts. Percentile system introduced last year was squashed by high court. The tinkering with systems has led to dissatisfaction among most of the students, except those benefiting from the change. The parents are disgusted because of uncertainties, running from pillar to post to get admissions and due to systematic weeding out of good students to accommodate academically weaker students on some or the other pretext.

Headless Schools

Reports have been appearing regularly in media about number of government schools without principals & teachers. In Maharashtra out of 9314 state board schools 49% are without head or principal. In Ludhiana district 131 out of 138 higher secondary schools are without heads. So is the case with many districts all over India. What direction can one expect for grooming students to face competitive examinations? SSC students are doing equally well when proper and adequate inputs are provided. Our education experts and administrators in the departments would do better if they focus on providing teaching staff, headmasters and principals to govt. schools so that students can fare better instead of trying to find a way out with a quota or other restrictive practices.

Earlier we move to a system of balance in quality and quota the better it would be. Let us not forget that quality is inversely proportion to quota. If it was not so, quota would not have been an issue at all and every one would get to participate in merit based opportunities. ICSE and CBSE both are sustaining good quality of education. Any attempt to stifle the students from these streams would be an attempt to deprive them of opportunities for better education in India. Time will come when 90% will go up to 95% reservation sooner or later. If the parents can afford and if education loans are available on easy terms, they would start looking out for admissions overseas. Instead of going overseas for higher education after graduation, students may opt to move out of country even for graduation. When this happens, we lose crème de la crème to developed world not just for education but also for employment. It would amount to systemic and systematic social over-engineering of high order. While everyone can’t afford to go abroad, 5-10 years later we would find it significantly impacting our scene. Some day we may get quotas for nursery schools also.

Dilution Of Standards Of Education

Today the educational institutions have gone into hands of politicians as their personal fiefdoms. There are any numbers of colleges for all disciplines mushrooming every year churning out students with paper degrees. Twenty years ago there were very few colleges offering MBA courses worth the money. Now every nook and corner in Pune one finds a management college housed in one floor of a building with couple of rooms. I met one young man, around 25, whose business card claimed him to be a member of the board of the management institute! Arjun Singh diluted the education system instead of reforming it. 125 universities were given “deemed” status giving them a free hand. It is easy to run down quality of education system. It takes vision to improve the quality.

One can only guess what kind of education the institutes may be imparting and quality of the teaching staff. There seems to be lack of any supervision by the government on such institutions which are ruining the careers of thousands of students who are left holding a paper degree after spending so much of money but can’t get a commensurate job. I have interviewed many a candidates with so called MBA degrees from universities or private institutions and did not find them any more than a good B.Com student.

India is fast moving into a knowledge society. We have the potential to challenge best of the world. While our brilliant students are doing wonderful work in top universities in USA, we are simply watering down standards of education at even graduation levels. If we have to sustain quality of good education, we must have sound practices for admissions, teaching and evaluation with quality teaching staff. We are diluting the value system of education. While reservations and quotas do have a degree of relevance to ensure social justice, it seems we are carrying it too far in every sphere.

From License Raj To Quota Raj

While the seventies and eighties were characterized by the license or permit raj, India has moved to quota raj in every aspect of national endeavor in the post-Mandal era in last 15 years. Be it position of President or Speaker or MP/ MLA in politics to entry into schools and colleges( even IITs / IIMs), recruitments, postings, transfers and whatever else, we have filters of social engineering. Mayawati discovered the dalit card first, supplemented it with brahmin card later and realized that they have very limited virtue. Quota was first applied on caste based systems. Now it is getting extended as a concept for anything “weaker” than stronger. We shall soon come around a full circle, when quota systems would have to go just like permit raj or licence raj, which had to be consigned to the dustbin of history.

Educational Reforms And Vision 2020

Dr.Narendra Jadhav, an economist and former VC of University of Pune has been appointed as member of Planning Commission in charge of education. (He has given himself a report card of 10 out of 10 for his performance in University of Pune). The government is also waiting for recommendations out of Vision 2020 of Dr. Abdul Kalam on reforms in education. Knowledge Commission has submitted reports in the past to PM. Education system has to be the backbone of the knowledge society. We must aim at stopping erosion of values in the field of education or we would suffer from Value Management Deficiency Syndrome. Can we expect the reforms in educational system in India in totality instead of piecemeal and ad hoc approach to problems keeping high courts busy at the beginning of every academic session?

I am sure some one would challenge this attempt to bring in quota for SSC students in courts and bring real issues on the table.

Vijay M.Deshpande
Corporate Advisor,
Strategic Management Initiative
Pune 411021

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Ban On Plastics Bags in Pune

Ban On Plastics Bags

Pune Municipal Corporation has decided to bring in ban on all the plastics bags to check the menace of floating thin bags. Till now plastics bags below 50 microns thickness have been banned in Maharashtra after the Mumbai floods for which plastics bags were made scapegoats. Is banning plastics bags the solution? Can the ban be effective in achieving the objective? In spite of the ban on bags below 50 microns, tonnes of bags are finding way into market without perhaps any effect of the ban. They will continue to be produced as long as the economics of packaging and cost of production justifies the same. Ban is not the answer!

We as a nation are not good at implementation of any laws or bans. In fact our political leaders take pride in breaking the laws and showing they are above the same. Supreme Court Directive on Municipal Solid Waste Management (MSWM) Rules 2000 made it mandatory on all Municipal Corporations to collect door to door segregated waste. There were schedules for formulation of operating systems for different categories and implementation by 2003. We do not have political will to implement this directive of Supreme Court. In Pune City,even a small decision like making a street one way can not be implemented. Number of one way streets in city have two way traffic and nobody can do anything! So how will they enforce a ban on manufacturing of plastic bags?

There are hardly any municipal corporations which have complied with the directive of the highest authority of the land. So if government bodies do not feel the need to follow the law of the land, why ban production activity? At least they are generating economic activity, providing jobs, generating resources and not just consuming public resources as do the municipal corporations. This is not to cover the industry but to bring home the point that all the sections of society have to look at their role and do justice to solve the universal problem spread across the world. A multipronged strategy is necessary to tackle this problem.

Cost effectiveness of plastics bags:

Ban on plastics bag does not help. It leads to more problems than it solves any. We have to understand that the market forces for any product decide the birth or death of a product. It is the economics which is the deciding factor in favour of plastics bags. The profitability of large organized retailers depends on packaging costs. If paper bags have to replace plastics bags the associated costs are much more. The energy consumed in making of paper bags is three times that used by plastics bags and large number of trees have to be felled to make paper. Cost of forestation is much higher than cost of recycling of bags. People are not aware that plastics bags are 100% recyclable. Cost of transporting huge piles of paper bags will be much more than that of plastics bags. Storage space required for paper bags for equal carrying capacities will be extremely high and unmanageable. Consumers only have to pay price for such higher costs.

Role of Consumers and Members of Society:

We as a community seem to be happy throwing anything 20 feet away from our dwelling place, never mind what happens after that. If people do not change their ways, the corporation has to bring systems taking cognizance of these facts of life and our national character. Education and involvement of public is essential for managing waste. It was heartening to see a city corporation board on the road in Aundh, Pune, reading something like "When we go abroad, we don’t litter. Why do it here? " Well done to "educate" the educated public traveling overseas. One board is not enough. A sustained campaign is essential to inculcate sense of responsibility at least among the educated lot first. Education must start at primary schools levels.

Don’t we keep newspapers till month end to sell them off as "raddi" even if it fetches just Rs.20 a month? Why should we litter surroundings with plastics bags. If the bags are not further reusable, we can pile them up and then dispose off as a bunch/bundle so that segregation becomes easy for rag pickers. Inability to segregate very thin plastics bags out of tonnes of waste is the main issue.

What about the efforts to create an efficient garbage collection and disposal system? For example, can the garbage be collected and incinerated in smaller clusters instead of transporting long distance out of the city and making a mess even in villages like Urali Devachi and Fursungi in Pune. Urali and villages have shown through their protests that even villages cannot be taken for granted for garbage dumping. The corporation has bought time of seven months to resolve the problem. It is time to address the issue in totality and not just tinkering with law book by bringing a ban to divert the public attention from the real issues.

Role of corporate bodies:

Large retailers like malls who are organized vis-a-vis small grocery shops, have to pitch in with their abilities to think big and treat the issue as an extension of their business environment. Wal-Mart is leader in recycling of plastics bags. They manage to collect plastics bags and wrappers for recycling. They are using plastics bags only because they are still most cost effective solution. Bharati Group has tied up with Wal- Mart for retail operations. It will be interesting to see if Bharati can bring in their model for management of plastics bags to India.

Large retailers and malls can take the lead with drop boxes at entry so that people can drop unwanted plastics bags for recycling. Can large retail business groups like Future Group, Bharati, Aditya Birla Group, Reliance, RPG, Tata and others take collective intiative as a part of corporate social responsibility to evolve a sustainable model on the lines of Wal-Mart? After all their profitability is ensured by cost effective plastics bags.

Role of City Corporations:

Role of government agencies like pollution control boards and city corporations has to be proactive and not reactive when drainages choke up in mansoon. Just seminars and some advertisments on "World Environment Day observed on June5" every year is not enough. Concrete actions are necessary to make this difference at ground levels.

The city corporations have to realize that people are forced to reuse thin plastics bags for disposal of household waste just because there is no organized system of collection and segregation of waste. If corporation insists on certain waste collection system then only they can expect cooperation from inhabitants. Our corporators are happy with sight of overflowing huge dustbins, stinking and spreading a message of cleanliness (!) surrounded by stray dogs and cows! Would you agree that it is due to plastics bags (which may be just 2-3% of the mass)? We owe it to our apathy and systemic failure.

Instead of taking shelter under the banning exercise and finding a scapegoat in the plastics bags, the municipal corporations would do well to reorganize themselves to manage the process of collection and disposal of waste taking lessons from developed world. In any developed society, waste is a byproduct of prosperity. Consumers have to be ready to pay for garbage disposal bags prevalent in developed countries. Do'nt we pay higher maintenance charges for flats in large complexes? If our cities are growing then we have to gear up to meet the challanges of handling prosperity. I am sure if required, there would be funds available under JNNURM for making a metro garbage free to world class standard. The bags have to be subsidised and nominal fees may be charged as a part of corporation tax for the houses/apartments. When we have Pradhan Mantri Sadak Yojana, why not have a Mukhya Mantri Safai Yojana ? Maharashtra State can identify top ten cities of the state which can be developed as models for waste management in 5 year’s time. There are a handful of city corporations which have taken initiative in managing plastics waste efficiently and have received recognition for their efforts. Pune Municipal Corporation has to just look around for suitable model to follow whether it is in India or outside and take the lead and adapt same to suit local needs. Pune is sister city of Bremen or San Jose. Why not look at their models and have a tie up for transfer of know how.

Our city planners of at least metros and large cities must get together to evolve common approach to this serious problem of waste management and not just plastics bags. Today e-waste has become major issue for disposal. Where does one throw a mobile phone, a cordless phone or a computer monitor or keyboard? They are all having plastics which can be recycled. Can there be a system for collection of such valuable waste? In Singapore one finds very large containers in which one has to throw glass items separately. If we have to make a Shanghai of Mumbai or any other city, we need first to make it clean enough to be deserved to be called a city and not an "out grown village".

Internet searches show that San Francisco City banned the plastics bags and discovered that paper bags produce double the green house gas emmisions and create five times waste compared to plastics bags. They also discovered that litter did not decrease defeating the very purpose of banning plastics. Even if one succeeds in replacing plastics bags with say paper bags at enormus cost disadvantage, the city corporation would find, like San Francisco, that the waste volumes have gone up substantially and littering has not decreased defeating the purpose of ban. Ban is not the answer! After all littering is in our DNA! We have to find solutions for this habit. Any takers for educating the public?

Vijay M.Deshpande

Corporate Advisor,

Strategic Management Initiative,

Pune.

June 5, 2009

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